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US Tariffs - Part Two

Understanding the effect of US tariffs on the rest of the world is mostly about second and third order effects, and weighing up which effect is going to be the strongest.

US Tariffs - Part One

Over the weekend of February 1-2, Australian time, US President Donald Trump fired the opening salvos in what might have become (and may yet become) a nasty trade war between supposed allies the US, Canada and Mexico.

BBSW - what is it and how is it used

The Bank Bill Swap Rate, commonly known as BBSW, is the most common measure of short-dated interest rates in Australia. Strictly speaking, it is the rate at which Australia’s prime banks borrow money for short periods, like three months or six months. BBSW is normally near, but just above, the RBA cash rate.

RBA Preview 17-18 February 2025: A history-making meeting

The RBA will do something historically noteworthy this coming meeting, regardless of what they decide. Either they will deliver the first rate cut of the 2025 rate cutting cycle, or they will disappoint a market priced for cuts more severely than they ever have before. With the consumer side of the economy showing signs of strengthening following tax cuts and real wages rising, there are plenty of reasons to wait before delivering the rate cut, even if inflation has fallen materially. But the optics may not let the RBA wait. So does the RBA want a rate cut or a hard place?

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