For the first time in my career I can honestly say that there is a clear and compelling reason for the RBA to raise rates – which I’ll outline shortly – but also a clear and compelling reason for the RBA to lower rates too.
FIIG achieved a median return for clients of 9.51%* over 2023-24. Returns in 2023-24 were strong for a number of reasons, and while past performance does not guarantee future returns, there are some strong reasons to suggest that returns in 2024-25 will once again be much higher than bond returns could achieve for much of the last decade.
The scope of power for the US president is altering dramatically just as the US sets out to vote for its next President. This has massive ramifications for the world at large, but also immediate impacts for investors. This piece will seek to explain how we got here and what might happen in the various scenarios for the November 2024 US Presidential Election.
The new financial year beginning July 1 brings a new set of tax brackets and material tax cuts for every taxpayer in Australia.
The digital revolution is transforming the way FIIG engages with bond investments, and our goal continues to be making investing in bonds more accessible and transparent than ever before.
We are approaching a consequential point for Federal finances and the macroeconomic backdrop. However, the real changes were set in motion in 2018, when the Stage 3 tax cuts were first legislated. Most other developments in the 2024 Budget are of decidedly modest importance in comparison.
Economy
The March quarter CPI result showed a sticky inflation and higher than expected results for both the quarter and the month – but it wasn’t all bad news.
While IAB bonds are sometimes perceived as being complex for their unique features, they are not so complicated once you know how to think about them. IABs pay quarterly payment that has it’s purchasing power preserved through indexation to inflation. Because the cash flow is indexed to inflation, the yield includes an inflation assumption. The par value needs to be calculated, but works in a similar way to a mortgage, with each quarterly payment having both an interest and a principal component.
Opinion
The Lucky 7 piece steps through four different possible outcomes for the RBA. The scenarios range from an unexpectedly high interest rate outcome to a rate cut cycle that would only occur if the economy materially weakened. In between are two much more likely scenarios that involve much less movement in the RBA rate.
Understanding the likely evolution of a bond’s price is critical to successful fixed income investing. All bonds have some exposure to interest rates or other risks and the price of a bond will change over the course of the investment. However, the structural features of a bond materially affect how and by how much the bond will react to changes in market rates. This article explains the most common types of bonds and explores the likely evolution of their prices over time.